AP Water Intelligence
Andhra Pradesh Groundwater Assessment

Scenario Planner

What this is
A what-if: dial the monsoon up or down and see which mandals tip into deficit.
What it says now
Starts from this season: Gauge rain since 1 June is 40% below normal; soil is drier than its usual for the date in 573 of 667 mandals.
What to do with it
Test a planning assumption; it is a scenario, not a forecast.
Prototype. Prototype results do not replace official field measurements or APWRIMS outputs.
Scenario presets
annual rainfall sensitivity / not a forecast
The published ONI indicates very strong El Niño conditions. CHIRPS v3.0 rainfall for Jun to Sep was 21.1% below its historical mean; the state’s rain gauges read 39.6% below normal from 1 June to 2026-10-17. Reusing that seasonal anomaly to scale a whole reference year is an illustrative assumption, not an ENSO forecast. Tap a preset to model its effect on the statewide water balance — a modelled scenario over real TerraClimate data, not a prediction.
Rainfall sensitivity / climate balance
MODELED SCENARIO
-30%annual rainfall
23/28 in deficit20 newly tipped
+20% wetnormal−50% drought
Press play to sweep the monsoon dial and watch districts shift toward deficit (deeper rust) and back. This is a modeled what-if over real TerraClimate 2025 balance — a planning aid, not a forecast.
Monsoon scenario
-30%
Annual Rainfall 30% Below The 2025 Reference
−50%−25%normal+20%
23/28districts in deficit3 in reference year
20newly tip into deficitvs reference rainfall
-65avg balance (mm/yr)under scenario
Under annual rainfall 30% below the 2025 reference, 23 of 28 AP district groups enter the prototype low-balance category; 20 newly cross its threshold.
Chittoor
DeficitDeficit
-271 mm
Annamayya
DeficitDeficit
-235.1 mm
Tirupatitips into deficit
BalancedDeficit
-226.9 mm
East Godavaritips into deficit
BalancedDeficit
-220.6 mm
Sri Sathya Sai
DeficitDeficit
-190.5 mm
Ananthapuramutips into deficit
BalancedDeficit
-190.3 mm
Y.S.R Kadapatips into deficit
BalancedDeficit
-186.5 mm
Kakinadatips into deficit
BalancedDeficit
-183 mm
NTRtips into deficit
BalancedDeficit
-149.2 mm
Sri Potti Sriramulu Nelloretips into deficit
BalancedDeficit
-148.5 mm
Markapuramtips into deficit
BalancedDeficit
-147.9 mm
Konaseematips into deficit
SurplusDeficit
-129.6 mm
Palnadutips into deficit
BalancedDeficit
-117.2 mm
Nandyaltips into deficit
BalancedDeficit
-112.7 mm
Elurutips into deficit
SurplusDeficit
-108.9 mm
West Godavaritips into deficit
SurplusDeficit
-106 mm
Prakasamtips into deficit
BalancedDeficit
-97.9 mm
Kurnooltips into deficit
BalancedDeficit
-97.7 mm
Polavaramtips into deficit
SurplusDeficit
-46.4 mm
Krishnatips into deficit
SurplusDeficit
-42.9 mm
Visakhapatnamtips into deficit
SurplusDeficit
-36.8 mm
Anakapallitips into deficit
SurplusDeficit
-16.9 mm
Gunturtips into deficit
SurplusDeficit
-1.3 mm
Bapatla
SurplusBalanced
+61.4 mm
Vizianagaram
SurplusBalanced
+218.6 mm
Srikakulam
SurplusBalanced
+228.7 mm
Parvathipuram Manyam
SurplusSurplus
+358.1 mm
Alluri Sitharama Raju
SurplusSurplus
+378.9 mm
Simplified scenario: annual rainfall is scaled by the monsoon dial and actual ET is held constant; balance = scaled rainfall − ET, re-tiered (Surplus ≥ 250, Balanced ≥ 50, Deficit < 50 mm/yr). A sensitivity test over TerraClimate data, not a calibrated forecast. The legacy "Deficit" label means below 50 mm, including some positive balances; it does not necessarily mean ET exceeds rainfall or establish groundwater depletion.