Chance of El Niño conditions through October–December (El Niño Advisory, issued 8 Oct 2026); NOAA’s median for Oct–Dec 2026 is +2.7 °C.
Andhra Pradesh Groundwater Assessment
Rabi Outlook
- What this is
- What the rabi season starts with: water in the reservoirs, moisture in rainfed fields, and the northeast monsoon.
- What it says now
- Reservoirs hold 45% against 85% a year ago; the topsoil is drier than usual in 337 of 405 rainfed mandals.
- What to do with it
- Plan irrigated rabi from the reservoirs, and contingency crops where the rainfed seedbed is dry.
Prototype. Prototype results do not replace official field measurements or APWRIMS outputs.
Rabi 2026–27 · the starting position
Each figure carries its own date. The site recommends no crop, release or sowing date; it shows the water these decisions start from.
- Reservoir storage45%517 of 1,161 TMC · 85% a year ago
- Rain since 1 June−40%State gauges, to 17 Oct
- Rainfed mandals, dry topsoil337 of 405Top 30 cm drier than its median year · 54 driest on record
- El Niño, Oct–Dec100%NOAA’s chance, issued 8 Oct
The water in the reservoirs
The Pennar basin is furthest behind last year: 37% full against 86%, with Somasila at 25% and Kandaleru at 25%. Storage as APWRIMS reports it on 19 Oct; which mandals a canal reaches is not public, so this is the water, not where it will go.
Krishna14 reservoirs · 749 TMC
45%86% a year ago+96.9 TMC since the monsoon began
Pennar47 reservoirs · 295 TMC
37%86% a year ago−40.6 TMC since the monsoon began
Other basins46 reservoirs · 89.8 TMC
53%74% a year ago+11.3 TMC since the monsoon began
Godavari7 reservoirs · 26.7 TMC
80%71% a year ago+1.7 TMC since the monsoon began
The largest reservoirs
- Nagarjuna SagarPalnadu60%99%
- SrisailamNandyal28%93%
- TungabadraVijayanagara(KS)51%74%
- SomasilaSri Potti Sriramulu Nellore25%95%
- KandaleruSri Potti Sriramulu Nellore25%88%
- PulichinthalaPalnadu62%96%
- GandikotaY.S.R Kadapa70%98%
- YeleruKakinada73%90%
The water in the tanks
From 15 Sep to 15 Oct, the tank beds of the 318 mandals with tanks held water over 181 km², against a usual 237 km² for the same weeks (2019–2025), 76% of usual. 143 mandals are emptier than their usual and 8 fuller. The typical tank mandal’s bed is 26% wet, the lowest of the 8 years read.
Where the tanks are furthest below their usual
- Eluru11 of 16 tank mandals emptier than usual49% of usual
- Y.S.R Kadapa4 of 10 tank mandals emptier than usual51% of usual
- Ananthapuramu11 of 14 tank mandals emptier than usual51% of usual
- Sri Sathya Sai11 of 13 tank mandals emptier than usual59% of usual
- Annamayya7 of 16 tank mandals emptier than usual63% of usual
- Vizianagaram10 of 17 tank mandals emptier than usual65% of usual
- NTR9 of 14 tank mandals emptier than usual69% of usual
How the tanks are readTank beds, satellite, window
Tank beds are the water that came and went with the seasons both before and after 2000 in the JRC Global Surface Water record (1984 to 2021): 4,012 water bodies of 2 to 5,000 ha with little permanent water, 694 km² in 328mandals. Permanent lakes and lagoons, reservoir drawdown rings and water that became permanent after 2000, largely aquaculture, are left out. Water is Sentinel-2’s own scene classification at 80 m, each pixel’s share of clear looks that saw water from 15 September to 15 October, against the median of the same weeks in 2019 to 2025. A mandal is read where at least half its tank bed was seen clear; emptier or fuller means more than ten points from its usual. Weedy or very shallow water can read as land in every year alike. Tanks fill again in the northeast monsoon, so this is the start of rabi, not its end.
Moisture in the seedbed
Rainfed rabi is sown on the water the soil holds and the rain still to come. In 337 of the 405 mostly rainfed mandals, the top 30 cm is drier than in its median year on this date (2014–2025); 54 are the driest on record. The 230 mandals where most cropland is irrigated are set aside: their sowing follows the canal and the well.
54 driest on record · 283 drier than the median year · 68 at or above it of 405 mostly rainfed mandals with a reading
A Bengal gram crop sown this week
On this week’s soil and forecast, a Bengal gram crop sown now would be short of water within seven days in 207 of the 405 rainfed mandals with a reading: 147 already, 60 more within the week.
Open the crop water checkWhere the rainfed seedbed is driest
- Ananthapuramu28% of its year’s rain falls Oct–Dec28 of 28
- Vizianagaram26% of its year’s rain falls Oct–Dec22 of 22
- Y.S.R Kadapa32% of its year’s rain falls Oct–Dec22 of 22
- Markapuram34% of its year’s rain falls Oct–Dec21 of 21
- Kurnool20% of its year’s rain falls Oct–Dec21 of 21
- Palnadu27% of its year’s rain falls Oct–Dec16 of 16
- Nandyal19% of its year’s rain falls Oct–Dec16 of 16
The northeast monsoon decides the rest
South coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema take a third to half of their year’s rain from the northeast monsoon. What El Niño has meant for it here is a tilt, not a forecast.
Statewide October–December rain, average of 15 El Niño years since 1981 (CHIRPS). Below normal in 9 of 15, against 23 of 45 years overall; from −52% to +46%.
District gauges, 1 October to 17 Oct, against the normal for those days.
Sources: reservoir storage, soil moisture (NRSC VIC model, % of what each soil holds, against the same date each year since 2014) and gauge rain from APWRIMS; irrigated cropland from ESA WorldCereal (10 m, rabi 2020–21; a mandal is mostly irrigated when half or more of its cropland is: One rabi season's satellite detection of active irrigation, not the irrigation census; it cannot say which crop is grown.); the sowing check is the FAO-56 water balance on the Agriculture page, Bengal gram at the initial stage (roots 0.2 m); El Niño from NOAA CPC; past October–December rain from CHIRPS v3.