Andhra Pradesh Groundwater Assessment

Drought Watch — Kharif 2026

What this is: Every mandal through the national drought manual's indicators and triggers, with the declaration calendar.
What it says now: 30 mandals read severe and 314 moderate on the manual's indicators; 479 of 615 meet its rainfall trigger.
What to do with it: Prepare the drought assessment; it reads the manual, it does not declare.

About this page

Prototype. Prototype results do not replace official field measurements or APWRIMS outputs.

AP DES rain gauges · weekly to 11 Oct CHIRPS v3 SPI · Jun–Sep 2026 NOAA vegetation index · to ~14 Oct NRSC soil moisture · to 18 Oct APWRIMS wells · 2026-09 Area sown · reported 9 Sep evidence for steps 1–2 · not a declaration

Kharif 2026 · Manual for Drought Management, 2020

By the manual’s first trigger, 479 of 615 assessed mandals have had a dry spell. On its three impact indicators, 30 read severe and 314 moderate; 26 more are moderate or severe until a missing indicator decides. This is the evidence the manual asks for, not a declaration: field verification and the notification are the State’s.

Rain to 11 Oct 2026

Step 1 · Trigger 1 · rainfall

479of 615 mandals

Set by 475 dry spells: 4 or more weeks in a row under half the week’s normal rain. On light soils, where the manual allows 3 weeks, 582. By the satellite SPI route, 546.

Step 2 · Trigger 2 · impact

Severe30
Moderate or severe26
Moderate314
Normal or moderate19
Trigger 1 only90

Step 3 · declaration window

1 Aug · early declaration possible
31 Oct 2026 · notify kharif drought, with its intensity
7 Nov · NDRF memorandum, only if severe
Up to 3 weeks’ extension for late sowing

01 / The manual’s path

Where every mandal stands in the three steps

Step 1 asks whether the rains failed: a dry spell, or a large deficit. Step 2 asks whether it shows, on three of four impact indicators. Step 3, field verification, decides.

Table 3.11 → Table 3.12 → 3.2.6

Step 3 · ground truth (the State)Field checks in 10% of the villages of each mandal at moderate or severe, about 5 sites per major crop, by smartphone app with GPS photos. A crop loss of 33% qualifies; over 50% for severe.

Declaration (the State)A notification naming the mandals and the intensity, by 31 October; valid for six months. Mandals over 75% irrigated may be moved down one rank, field checks still required.

Central assistanceA memorandum for NDRF within a week of declaring, for severe drought; moderate drought is met from SDRF unless it falls short.

02 / Where

Every mandal, and the manual’s matrix filled in for any one of them

Colour the map by the outcome or by any single indicator. Pick a mandal to see each value, the rule it was read against and where it comes from.

Rain to 11 Oct 2026

Severe 30Moderate or severe 26Moderate 314Normal or moderate 19Trigger 1 only 90No trigger 136Not assessed 55

Trigger 1, then three impact indicators, by the manual's matrix. Not a declaration.

Since a week earlier:

Sambepalle

Annamayya district · official boundary (AWARE, rebuilt)

Severe

Step 1 · Trigger 1Set

Rainfall vs normal−72%106 mm against 373 mm · Large deficient. Table 3.1 (IMD): normal +19 to −19%, deficient −20 to −59%, large deficient −60 to −99%, no rain −100%. Measured: AP DES gauges via APWRIMS.

Longest dry spell14 wk3.2.1 B: consecutive weeks after the monsoon's due onset with under 50% of the week's normal; usually 4 weeks, 3 on light soils.

1 Jundashed line: half of normal11 Oct

SPI route (satellite)−2.47Extremely dry; would set Trigger 1 on its own route. 3.2.1 C: SPI below −1 is a deficit; below −1.5 sets Trigger 1 without a dry spell. CHIRPS v3 since 1981.

Trigger 1 set by a dry spell. Table 3.11: a dry spell sets Trigger 1. Without one, only large-deficient rainfall (or SPI below −1.5) does.

Step 2 · Trigger 2 · 3 of 3 indicatorsSevere

Remote sensing · VCI Severe29Table 3.4: VCI 60–100 normal, 40–60 moderate, 0–40 severe. NOAA STAR VHP, 4 km, last four weeks. Satellite index over all vegetation; coarser than the manual prefers.

Soil moisture · PASM Severe43%Usual for the date 94%. This date read Severe in 5 of 12 earlier years. Table 3.6 (2020): PASM 76–100 no drought, 51–75 moderate, 0–50 severe. The State may recalibrate. Modelled: NRSC VIC at 30 cm via APWRIMS, four-week mean.

Hydrology · GWDI Moderate−0.38Moderate: 19.8 m below ground against a 11.1 m mean for the month, 10 years. Table 3.9: GWDI above −0.15 normal, to −0.30 mild, to −0.45 moderate, to −0.60 severe, below extreme. Measured: APWRIMS wells.

Agriculture · area sown Severe26%District figure as reported for 9 Sep 2026; context only, not one of this mandal's three. 3.2.3.1: sown area under 85% of normal is drought; 75% or less is severe.

3.3.1 Step 2: severe if two of three are severe and the third at least moderate; moderate if two are moderate or worse.

Step 3 · the State

Field verification due before harvest. 3.2.6: field checks in 10% of villages, about 5 sites per major crop; crop loss of 33% qualifies, over 50% for severe.

03 / How it built

A season of dry weeks

The trigger did not arrive at once: it built week by week as the rains failed in one district after another.

19 weeks from 1 Jun

How the season dried

Mandals by rainfall so far at the end of each week, and how many had already run four dry weeks in a row (the line). Measured, AP DES gauges.

ExcessNormalDeficientLarge deficientNo rain4-week dry spell so far

Show the numbers

Mandals in each rainfall class, week by week this season, with those in a 4-week dry spell
Week ending	Excess	Normal	Deficient	Large deficient	No rain	Dry spell
11 Oct	1	78	450	86	0	475
4 Oct	4	121	413	77	0	475
27 Sep	8	175	374	58	0	474
20 Sep	6	51	452	106	0	474
13 Sep	2	37	401	175	0	472
6 Sep	2	29	372	212	0	466
30 Aug	4	39	382	190	0	420
23 Aug	4	46	384	181	0	382
16 Aug	5	56	385	169	0	373
9 Aug	9	84	374	148	0	370
2 Aug	10	70	356	179	0	365
26 Jul	10	59	308	238	0	283
19 Jul	16	85	325	189	0	189
12 Jul	31	126	284	174	0	129
5 Jul	93	173	223	126	0	37
28 Jun	131	145	216	123	0	0
21 Jun	146	128	187	154	0	0
14 Jun	163	94	164	191	3	0
7 Jun	142	45	128	230	70	0

Ran a dry spell: 475
Typical longest spell: 5 weeks
Driest week: 97%
Short for the season: 536

The dry weeks, district by district

Each cell is one week: the darker, the more of the district’s mandals got under half the week’s normal rain. The first week precedes the monsoon’s normal onset and is not counted. Right: mandals with Trigger 1 set.

1 Jun29 Jun27 Jul24 Aug21 SepT1

Sri Sathya Sai32

West Godavari19

Prakasam26

Annamayya25

Markapuram19

Bapatla20

Chittoor20

Kurnool19

Srikakulam23

Nandyal22

Ananthapuramu25

Visakhapatnam6

Y.S.R Kadapa29

Anakapalli19

Vizianagaram21

NTR13

East Godavari16

Eluru18

Krishna18

Guntur9

Konaseema11

Sri Potti Sriramulu Nellore17

Kakinada11

Palnadu15

Parvathipuram Manyam6

Tirupati15

Polavaram3

Alluri Sitharama Raju2

04 / By district

Which districts carry the most mandals at moderate or worse

Sorted by the share of assessed mandals at moderate or worse; click a heading to sort by an indicator. Medians across each district’s mandals.

28 districts

District							Area sown
Bapatla23 mandals · 22 assessed	20 / 22	5 severe · 3 mod–sev · 10 moderate	−46%	26	50%	−0.23	not shared
Annamayya26 mandals · 25 assessed	25 / 25	3 severe · 4 mod–sev · 18 moderate	−58%	44	52%	0.00	26% · reported
Kurnool23 mandals · 21 assessed	19 / 21	2 severe · 3 mod–sev · 13 moderate	−51%	48	27%	−0.02	90% · reported
Sri Sathya Sai32 mandals · 32 assessed	32 / 32	3 severe · 1 mod–sev · 27 moderate	−61%	39	30%	+0.07	56% · reported
Nandyal29 mandals · 26 assessed	22 / 26	5 severe · 1 mod–sev · 13 moderate	−49%	41	41%	−0.22	not shared
Prakasam27 mandals · 26 assessed	26 / 26	1 severe · 2 mod–sev · 20 moderate	−62%	37	33%	+0.08	not shared
Markapuram21 mandals · 21 assessed	19 / 21	1 mod–sev · 18 moderate	−55%	32	27%	+0.11	not shared
Ananthapuramu33 mandals · 28 assessed	25 / 28	1 severe · 23 moderate	−45%	40	31%	−0.04	69% · reported
Krishna29 mandals · 22 assessed	18 / 22	2 severe · 1 mod–sev · 12 moderate	−33%	40	62%	−0.20	not shared
Y.S.R Kadapa39 mandals · 36 assessed	29 / 36	5 mod–sev · 21 moderate	−52%	46	33%	+0.01	45% · reported
Visakhapatnam8 mandals · 7 assessed	6 / 7	1 severe · 3 moderate	−25%	40	65%	−0.29	not shared
Palnadu30 mandals · 23 assessed	15 / 23	2 severe · 13 moderate	−40%	34	32%	−0.11	not shared
Anakapalli26 mandals · 22 assessed	19 / 22	1 severe · 13 moderate	−29%	50	79%	−0.39	not shared
Chittoor24 mandals · 23 assessed	20 / 23	1 severe · 1 mod–sev · 11 moderate	−50%	53	59%	−0.08	not shared
NTR18 mandals · 15 assessed	13 / 15	10 moderate	−38%	52	53%	−0.21	not shared
Guntur15 mandals · 14 assessed	9 / 14	9 moderate	−32%	34	64%	−0.30	not shared
Vizianagaram29 mandals · 26 assessed	21 / 26	1 severe · 11 moderate	−27%	64	57%	−0.07	not shared
East Godavari23 mandals · 21 assessed	16 / 21	1 severe · 8 moderate	−38%	62	57%	−0.17	not shared
Eluru26 mandals · 23 assessed	18 / 23	1 mod–sev · 10 moderate	−31%	51	59%	−0.10	not shared
Sri Potti Sriramulu Nellore32 mandals · 31 assessed	17 / 31	1 mod–sev · 13 moderate	−44%	50	40%	+0.06	not shared
Parvathipuram Manyam13 mandals · 13 assessed	6 / 13	1 severe · 3 moderate	−34%	59	57%	−0.13	not shared
Polavaram12 mandals · 10 assessed	3 / 10	1 mod–sev · 2 moderate	−26%	49	64%	−0.21	not shared
Tirupati33 mandals · 33 assessed	15 / 33	1 mod–sev · 11 moderate	−48%	53	45%	+0.08	not shared
West Godavari19 mandals · 19 assessed	19 / 19	7 moderate	−35%	62	49%	−0.04	not shared
Srikakulam29 mandals · 29 assessed	23 / 29	8 moderate	−19%	63	61%	−0.14	not shared
Kakinada21 mandals · 19 assessed	11 / 19	5 moderate	−25%	46	77%	−0.14	not shared
Konaseema19 mandals · 17 assessed	11 / 17	2 moderate	−31%	48	88%	−0.09	not shared
Alluri Sitharama Raju11 mandals · 11 assessed	2 / 11	0 moderate	−26%	64	72%	−0.15	not shared

Show all 28 districtsShow the first 10

05 / Water in store, fields sown

The two impact indicators that are not per mandal

Reservoir storage and area sown belong to the matrix too, but neither is published per mandal. Both are shown at the level they exist.

Reservoirs against their last ten years

Live storage on 17 Oct 2026 against the average for the same date in 2016–2025. Measured at the dam. The manual applies this only where farming depends on reservoir water; which mandals each one serves is not public.

499 TMC now820 TMC usual39% short · Moderate deficit

Subsidiary Reservoir -I−70% · Extreme

Srisailam R−66% · Extreme

Somasila Reservoir−66% · Extreme

Raiwada Reservoir−57% · Severe

Vamikonda Sagar Reservoir−56% · Severe

Yerrakalva Reservoir−54% · Severe

Subsidiary Reservoir -Ii−54% · Severe

Mylavaram(Pennar) Reservoir−53% · Severe

Kandaleru Reservoir−51% · Severe

Velogodu Balancing Reservoir−45% · Severe

Chitravati Balancing Reservoir−38% · Moderate

Tungabadra Dam−37% · Moderate

Table 3.8: storage deficit against the last 10 years' average: under 20% normal, 20–30 mild, 30–40 moderate, 40–60 severe, over 60 extreme. Listed: reservoirs that usually hold 1 TMC or more on this date. The state figure counts all 96 with at least five of the ten years on record.

Fields sown, as reported

Kharif area sown against the season’s normal, 9 Sep 2026: the Commissionerate of Agriculture’s weekly report as quoted by the press (Deccan Chronicle, 11 September 2026). Entered by hand and not refreshed: the department’s site does not answer requests from outside India. Five districts were quoted.

Dashed lines: 85% (drought) and 75% (severe)

Andhra Pradesh85%75%74% · Severe

Annamayya26% · Severe

Y.S.R Kadapa45% · Severe

Sri Sathya Sai56% · Severe

Ananthapuramu69% · Severe

Kurnool90% · Normal

3.2.3.1: sown area under 85% of normal is drought; 75% or less is severe. The manual also asks the State to certify that no further sowing is expected before declaring. Source report.

06 / What the State still has to do

From evidence to a notification by 31 Oct 2026

The manual gives the State the last word: field checks, the area sown, the irrigated share, and the notification itself.

Agriculture review →

1 JunSeason starts

1 AugEarly declaration possible

19 OctThis build

31 OctDeclare drought

21 Nov+3 weeks at most

This page

Steps 1 and 2 for every mandal

Rainfall deviation, dry spells and SPI for Trigger 1; vegetation, soil moisture and groundwater for Trigger 2, with each value’s rule and source. Updated every Monday.

Revenue & Agriculture

Ground truth in 370 mandals

3.2.6: field checks in 10% of villages, about 5 sites per major crop; crop loss of 33% qualifies, over 50% for severe. Form 11 compiles it village by village.

Agriculture

Area sown, by mandal

The fourth impact indicator, and the certificate that no further sowing is expected. Only district figures for five districts are on this page, as reported.

Water Resources

Irrigated share by mandal

Above 75% irrigated, the State may move a mandal down one rank. The share is not public; canal command areas would also tell which mandals the reservoirs serve.

Revenue (Disaster Management)

Notify by 31 Oct 2026

3.4: notify kharif drought by 31 October (extendable by up to 3 weeks for late sowing); NDRF memorandum within a week, if severe.

Method

How this page reads the manual

Built 19 Oct 2026 · data 19 Oct 2026

The manual’s tables, as this page reads themRules, interpretations, sources and what this is not

Read straight from the manual

Table 3.1 (IMD): normal +19 to −19%, deficient −20 to −59%, large deficient −60 to −99%, no rain −100%.
3.2.1 B: consecutive weeks after the monsoon's due onset with under 50% of the week's normal; usually 4 weeks, 3 on light soils.
Table 3.11: a dry spell sets Trigger 1. Without one, only large-deficient rainfall (or SPI below −1.5) does.
Table 3.4: VCI 60–100 normal, 40–60 moderate, 0–40 severe. Table 3.6 (2020): PASM 76–100 no drought, 51–75 moderate, 0–50 severe. The State may recalibrate.
Table 3.9: GWDI above −0.15 normal, to −0.30 mild, to −0.45 moderate, to −0.60 severe, below extreme.
3.3.1 Step 2: severe if two of three are severe and the third at least moderate; moderate if two are moderate or worse.

Where the manual had to be read

'Moderate' in the severity rule is read as 'moderate or worse'.
Hydrology bands mild and extreme (Tables 3.8, 3.9) are folded into normal and severe.
The first week of June precedes the monsoon's normal onset over most of the state and is not counted toward a dry spell.
GWDI's mean depth is read as the mean for the same month across the record.

Sources, and what each one is

Rain: AP DES mandal rain gauges via APWRIMS, 1 Jun–11 Oct 2026. Measured.
SPI: CHIRPS v3.0 monthly, zonal mean per mandal boundary, 2026-06 to 2026-09, against 1981–2025. Satellite estimate.
VCI: NOAA STAR Blended Vegetation Health Product (VIIRS), VCI, 4 km weekly, weeks of 17 Sep–14 Oct 2026 (dates approximate). 4 km cells over all vegetation, not cropland alone; the manual prefers 56-500 m NDVI/NDWI over agricultural areas. A screening value, not a declaration-grade one.
PASM: NRSC VIC land-surface model via APWRIMS, plant-available water at 30 cm, weekly values 18 Oct, 11 Oct, 4 Oct, 27 Sep. Modelled.
GWDI: APWRIMS monthly groundwater depth, the site's own mandal series, 2026-09; same calendar month in every year on record, at least 10 years. Measured, research-access readings.

What this is not

Not a declaration, and not a recommendation to declare: the manual makes ground truth final and the notification the State’s.
Prototype mandal boundaries; a few boundaries have no unique gauge or model record and are not assessed.
The NDVI/NDWI the manual prefers comes from the State Remote Sensing Centre or MNCFC at 56–500 m; the 4 km NOAA index here is a stand-in until that is shared.
The manual: Manual for Drought Management (updated 2020), Department of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare, Government of India.