Summer Water Outlook
- What this is
- Where the water table may stand next May, mandal by mandal, against each mandal's own deepest May on record.
- What it says now
- 76 mandals, home to about 67 lakh people, are heading past their deepest May on record and more than 10 m down.
- What to do with it
- Plan bore wells, hand-pump repairs and tankers where it is heading past its record first; it updates every Monday.
Each mandal against its own record: the depth at which a well fails depends on how deep it was drilled, which no public record gives.
- Beyond its record126 mandalstypical winter · 76 more than 10 m down, home to 67 lakh
- In a dry winter217 mandalsonly in a winter as dry as their driest · 143 more than 10 m down, home to 1.1 crore
- Within its record275 mandalseither way · of 618 mandals on the map
- Track record1 in 3“Beyond” calls that set a new record, against 1 in 8 overall (2019–26)
Where the record may break
Projected from each mandal’s September 2026 reading and its own past winters: the typical drawdown from September to May, and the largest. Grey: too short a record to project, or no reading. See it in 3D →
Districts with the most mandals at risk, more than 10 m down
- Ananthapuramu16 lakh people live in them · 1 beyond its record, 17 in a dry winter17 of 29
- Nandyal13 lakh people live in them · 5 beyond its record, 13 in a dry winter16 of 27
- Chittoor10 lakh people live in them · 7 beyond its record, 8 in a dry winter15 of 24
- Sri Sathya Sai8.8 lakh people live in them · 4 beyond its record, 11 in a dry winter15 of 32
- Y.S.R Kadapa12 lakh people live in them · 2 beyond its record, 14 in a dry winter14 of 36
- Eluru11 lakh people live in them · 5 beyond its record, 9 in a dry winter14 of 24
- East Godavari9.3 lakh people live in them · 7 beyond its record, 7 in a dry winter12 of 21
- Palnadu7.1 lakh people live in them · 1 beyond its record, 16 in a dry winter10 of 23
- Srikakulam6.2 lakh people live in them · 10 beyond its record, 10 in a dry winter9 of 29
Surface water for the towns: reservoirs hold 45% of capacity against 85% a year ago. Basin by basin →
More than 10 m down, and furthest past their record
Each row on one scale: metres from the mandal’s own deepest May, the dark line at zero. The open dot is today’s reading; the bar runs from a typical winter to the driest on record. The depth below ground is on the right.
- GiddalurMarkapuram · 95,560 people · semi-critical77.7 m20.3 m past its record
- AmarapuramSri Sathya Sai · 64,800 people · safe54.4 m8.9 m past its record
- LingapalemEluru · 56,268 people · safe38.4 m8.9 m past its record
- T.narasapuramEluru · 46,697 people · safe26.4 m8.0 m past its record
- GudibandaSri Sathya Sai · 52,839 people · semi-critical60.2 m7.8 m past its record
- PenumuruChittoor · 46,646 people · semi-critical21.1 m7.0 m past its record
- Visakhapatnam (rural)Visakhapatnam · 1.3 lakh people · safe23.9 m5.6 m past its record
- NindraChittoor · 34,267 people · over-exploited12.5 m5.6 m past its record
- AtchutapuramAnakapalli · 95,962 people · safe31.0 m5.0 m past its record
- NandyalNandyal · 2.8 lakh people · safe11.9 m4.7 m past its record
- DwarakatirumalaEast Godavari · 59,707 people · safe59.1 m4.7 m past its record
- DurgiPalnadu · 66,060 people · safe24.7 m4.6 m past its record
Drinking water rests on these wells
Nineteen in twenty of the State’s rural drinking-water schemes draw on groundwater. The 126 mandals heading past their deepest May hold 1,24,219 of its drinking-water sources and delivery points: where a summer supply plan starts.
By districtSchemes on groundwater, mandals past the record and their sources
| District (as the mission reports it) | Schemes on groundwater | Mandals past the record | Their sources | Above a chemical limit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Visakhapatnam | 95% | 21 | 28,090 | 2,190 |
| East Godavari | 97% | 16 | 16,174 | 889 |
| Vizianagaram | 99% | 7 | 10,144 | 952 |
| Krishna | 91% | 14 | 9,993 | 720 |
| Srikakulam | 99% | 11 | 9,749 | 1,312 |
| Chittoor | 99% | 8 | 9,191 | 322 |
| West Godavari | 88% | 11 | 8,947 | 503 |
| Kurnool | 96% | 11 | 7,997 | 1,822 |
| Guntur | 94% | 9 | 7,920 | 679 |
| Y.s.r. | 97% | 4 | 5,905 | 429 |
| Ananthapuramu | 95% | 5 | 5,802 | 886 |
| Prakasam | 97% | 4 | 3,723 | 594 |
| Sri Potti Sriramulu Nellore | 95% | 1 | 584 | 39 |
Jal Jeevan Mission, public IMIS reports, as on 18 Oct 2026: schemes by source (format B26) and tested sources by block (format E5). The mission still reports the 13 districts from before 2022, so each mandal is listed under that district. Sources include delivery points and stand posts as the mission counts them. All 660 blocks are placed on a mandal outline, 569 by name and 91 through a reviewed list of spellings and of names two districts share, placed by location. A test above a chemical limit is a reading of water quality, not a forecast. Only counts are read; no habitation or scheme is named.
The same projection, run on every past year
Each year from 2018 was projected from the other years’ winters alone, from its August reading, and set against the May that followed (4,710 mandal-years). The typical projection was off by a median 1.6 m, against 1.9 m for assuming no change; 89% of Mays came in no deeper than the dry-winter projection.
Dashed: all mandal-years, 12%. 74% of the Mays that did set a new record had been flagged beyond the record or in a dry winter.
May 2024 followed the 2023 El Niño monsoon and came in 0.9 m deeper than the typical projection. This is an El Niño year too.
Source: APWRIMS monthly groundwater level by mandal (Ground Water and Water Audit Department piezometers), metres below ground, 2014 to September 2026. People: WorldPop (University of Southampton) 2020 population counts, 1 km, UN-adjusted, India; summed over each mandal outline at 250 m (CC BY 4.0), a modelled estimate for 2020 that counts everyone in the mandal, towns included, not only those on wells. A mandal is projected when it has at least four past winters with readings in both months. APWRIMS reports a mandal’s average across its piezometers; one village’s wells can sit well above or below it. Rain this winter, recharge structures and new pumping all move the answer; the outlook is refreshed as each month’s readings arrive. Methodology